Total Spent (6 yrs)
£8,092
Electricity + Gas
Cheapest Year
2020
£493 — Fixed 13.9p/kWh
Most Expensive Year
2023
£1,851 — 64p/kWh peak
Crisis Overpay Est.
£630
Oct 22–Apr 23 vs pre-crisis fix
Best Effective Rate
6.4p
12M Fixed 2020–21
Forecast Annual Cost
£1,365
At current Loyal rates
Forecast Electricity
3,349
kWh/year
Forecast Gas
5,943
kWh/year
Annual Energy Costs & Consumption
Annual energy bill (electricity + gas, £)
Annual electricity consumption (kWh)
Annual gas consumption (kWh)
Unit Rate History — The Energy Crisis in Numbers
Electricity & gas unit rates (p/kWh) over time
Monthly Energy Spend Over Time
Monthly cost (£) — bar colour = tariff in effect
Tariff Comparison & Ranking
Effective all-in rate per kWh by tariff
Tariff ranking (effective p/kWh — energy unit cost only)
| Rank | Tariff | Period | Elec avg | Gas avg | Eff. rate |
|---|
| 🥇 1st | 12M Fixed | May 20–Jun 21 | 13.9p | 2.4p | 6.4p |
| 🥈 2nd | Loyal 14M | Apr 25–Apr 26 | 21.6p | 5.5p | 16.1p |
| 🥉 3rd | Flexible | Jun 21–Apr 25 | 27.5p | 7.4p | 16.9p |
Flexible Octopus average is skewed by the 2022–23 crisis (49–64p). From Jul 2023 onward its rate averaged ~23p — broadly matching Loyal Octopus.
Fixed vs Tracker — What Would Have Been Cheaper?
Crisis period cost (Oct 2022–Apr 2023): actual vs hypothetical
Verdict
📊
The 12M Fixed (2020–21) was the clear winner
13.9p elec / 2.4p gas locked in before the crisis. If that rate had been extended through the crisis, you would have saved ~£630 in just 7 months.
⚠️
Fixed deals offered in autumn 2022 were a trap
Suppliers were quoting 50–70p fixed at the crisis peak. You would have paid ~£70 MORE than the actual Flexible price if you'd locked in then. Staying Flexible was correct.
✅
Tracker (Flexible) was right from mid-2023
Once wholesale prices fell, Flexible Octopus tracked them down rapidly. Any fixed deal taken in early 2023 would have locked in elevated rates you'd now be overpaying on.
Seasonal Patterns
Average daily usage by month — electricity vs gas (kWh/day)
Gas daily usage trend — winter months only (shows long-term improvement)
House Move & Baby — Usage Impact
Daily electricity average (kWh/day) by year & address
Daily gas average (kWh/day) by year & address
🏠
Electricity: New home is 8% more efficient
Address 1 averaged 9.2 kWh/day. Address 2 averages 8.5 kWh/day despite a baby added to the household. Likely reflects better LED lighting, modern appliances, or a more efficient layout.
🔥
Gas: New home uses 44% more
Address 1 averaged 19.0 kWh/day gas. Address 2 started at 27.3 kWh/day. Larger property and/or worse insulation. Keeping rooms warmer for the baby likely added to this initially.
📉
Gas improving year on year
Annual gas at Address 2: 6,800 kWh (2022) → 6,400 (2023) → 5,980 (2024) → 5,030 (2025). A 26% drop in 3 years. Smart meter awareness, thermostat tuning, or home improvements are working.
✅ Recommended Next Tariff Strategy
Your current Loyal Octopus 14M (21.9p elec / 5.5p gas) runs to approximately June 2026 and is currently one of Octopus's best-value products. No action needed until expiry.
- Stay on Loyal Octopus until it expires (~June 2026). Do not exit early — there is no better fixed deal at these rates currently.
- When Loyal expires, first check if Octopus offers another Loyal deal — these have historically beaten standard fixed tariffs.
- Compare Octopus Tracker: it follows daily wholesale price, very cheap in summer, more volatile in winter. Good if you can tolerate variability.
- Avoid locking into a long fixed deal (18–24 months) unless you can get electricity below 20p and gas below 5p — market consensus is rates should ease by late 2026.
- Your biggest savings lever is gas, not tariff-switching. You have already cut 26% — a smart thermostat or TRV upgrades could yield another 10–15% (£50–75/yr).
- If you ever get an EV or heat pump, switch to Octopus Intelligent or Agile — overnight rates can be 4–8p/kWh vs 22p standard. That tariff would change your economics entirely.
- Estimated forecast cost on Loyal: £1,365/year. A well-timed tracker could reduce this to ~£1,200 in a favourable wholesale year.
Forecast — Next 12 Months
Annual cost at different rate scenarios
Forecast monthly electricity (kWh)
Forecast monthly gas (kWh)
Anomalies & Billing Quirks Detected
⚠️
Gas Credit — Sep 2022: −2,706 kWh
A large negative gas entry appears in the Sep 2022 bill — this is an Octopus reconciliation credit after installing a smart meter and correcting estimated reads. No actual energy was sent backwards. Legitimate credit.
❄️
Gas Spike — Jan 2021: 2,232 kWh
Highest single-month gas usage in 6 years. January 2021 was exceptionally cold across the UK with prolonged frost. This is seasonal, not an inefficiency or billing error.
📄
Billing Fragments — May–Oct 2021
Multiple very short billing periods and "(seg)" usage markers appear during the house move and tariff change. Octopus splits bills at tariff boundaries. No double-billing detected across all records.
📈
High Electricity — Feb 2025: 393 kWh
Highest single-month electricity reading. Covers a 35-day billing period (longer than usual) but daily average was still elevated at ~11.2 kWh/day. Cold snap + potentially more indoor time during half-term.